Why does King Bibi keep coming back?

Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu has relied on a key promise: that no one else can ensure Israel's safety. This has allowed him to remain in power despite electoral defeats and challenges from political opponents. However, the Hamas-led attack on October 7th 2023 laid bare a devastating security failure in Israel. The country was caught off guard, more than a thousand people were killed and 251 people were taken hostage. Despite this, Netanyahu has managed to sustain his political career.

Israel’s 27 October 2026, election weakened Netanyahu’s position but failed to deliver a decisive victory to his opponents. His Likud-led bloc secured 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the main opposition bloc won 48. Arab-led parties secured the remaining 19 seats. With 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority, neither side has an assured path to government. The result leaves Netanyahu weakened but still in the political game.

This creates a paradox for the prime minister. While his security credentials have suffered greatly and his leadership is often seen as contentious, within Israel’s fractured political scene he will have the chance to negotiate his way back into power.

How did security become central to his political identity?

Born in Tel Aviv in 1949, Netanyahu grew up in a family influenced by Revisionist Zionism, a nationalist movement that has shaped the political right wing of Israel. He served in the elite Sayeret Matkal unit before moving into diplomacy and politics. At the age of 46, Benjamin Netanyahu became Israel’s youngest-ever prime minister when he first assumed office in 1996. He lost the position in 1999 to Labour’s Ehud Barak but returned to power in 2009, serving until 2021. After an 18-month break, he made another comeback in December 2022.

Throughout his career, Netanyahu has managed to place security as a core issue within Israel. He has repeatedly positioned himself as the best leader to deal with threats from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. Supporters point to his experience and tough stance on security, while critics argue that he has played on the public’s fears regarding security.

The October 7th attack saw Hamas-led militants storm across the heavily fortified border and attacked communities and a music festival. They killed many civilians and soldiers and took 251 people as hostages. The attack exposed a major intelligence and military failure and raised crucial questions regarding the government’s ability to deal with the threat from Gaza.

Hamas and the illusion of containment

Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, deepening the political split between Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited self-rule in parts of the occupied West Bank. Israel imposed severe restrictions on Gaza. There have been many different strategies to manage Hamas.

However, Netanyahu’s government permitted Qatar to fund certain areas of Gaza. Supporters argue that the funding helped avoid an economic crisis and maintain relative calm. Critics contend that Netanyahu focused on keeping Hamas at bay rather than eliminating the threat it posed.

However, this raises questions about whether Israel made a mistake. By pursuing a strategy of containment, Israeli policymakers may have believed they had found a long-term way to manage Hamas.

This does not mean Hamas could have launched the attack without Qatari funding, nor does it mean that the funding was not intended for humanitarian purposes. But this shows there are questions to be asked regarding the overall strategy. The 7 October attack exposed the dangers of this approach, suggesting that the strategy of containment had failed to anticipate Hamas’s capabilities.

What keeps him in power despite opposition

Netanyahu’s political longevity can be partly attributed to Israel’s electoral system. Parties win seats in proportion to the votes they receive. This means governments are typically formed through coalitions, requiring parties to negotiate with one another.

The government Netanyahu formed in December 2022 was a coalition of Likud, ultra-Orthodox parties and far-right nationalist groups. While the groups didn’t have exactly the same goals, they did have an interest in keeping the coalition in power.

The ultra-Orthodox parties sought to protect religious education, secure funding for their institutions and maintain exemptions from military service. The far-right groups sought to expand Israeli settlements and adopt a harder line towards Palestinians. Some have also advocated policies that would weaken Palestinian self-rule.

Netanyahu has shown that he can manage these competing interests, although doing so can create tensions. His reliance on hardline coalition partners can limit his options and deepen divisions within Israel. These divisions can complicate decisions on military operations, hostage deals and Gaza.

The judicial overhaul in 2023 exposed the depth of the country's divisions. Mass protests erupted as the government sought to curb the judiciary's powers. Opponents said this would threaten democracy. The 7 October attack deepened the national crisis, but disagreements over Netanyahu's leadership persisted.

The 2026 election has once again left the political landscape uncertain. Netanyahu's bloc lacks a majority, while the opposition must overcome its internal differences. Just because people don’t like Netanyahu doesn’t mean they will support a viable alternative.

His coalition partners also have an incentive to keep him in power, since their influence depends partly on their participation in government.

Issues outside parliament

Israel’s military operations in Gaza have caused extensive destruction. Large numbers of people have been displaced, creating a severe humanitarian crisis. Many civilians have been killed, and civilian infrastructure has suffered extensive damage. These actions have drawn widespread international criticism. Israel has faced scrutiny over its obligations under international humanitarian law.

However, Hamas’s atrocities on 7 October do not absolve Israel of its obligations under international humanitarian law. Nor does it diminish the trauma experienced by Israeli families.

In November 2024, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his then defence minister, Yoav Gallant, over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. The warrants do not constitute convictions. However, South Africa has brought a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. The case was brought under the Genocide Convention, and the provisional measures ordered by the court do not constitute a final determination of whether genocide has occurred.

Netanyahu also faces a domestic corruption trial. He faces charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, all of which he denies. Together with the judicial overhaul controversy and the fallout from 7 October, these developments have intensified the pressure on him.

Although he remains a divisive figure, he may stay in power if his opponents fail to unite, his allies see advantages in supporting him, and voters believe the alternatives would be worse.

When will the Bibi era end?

Some of Netanyahu’s resilience can be attributed to genuine security issues. However, coalition politics have also enabled him to negotiate his way back into power. His opponents remain divided, with no consensus on Israel’s political future. He has repeatedly benefited from these divisions.

Although the 2026 election has weakened his position, he has not been decisively defeated. His opponents must not only unite but also offer a credible plan for improving security, governing the country, and addressing Gaza and Palestinian statehood.

His central promise was that he could ensure Israel’s safety. The 7 October attack severely undermined that claim. The war has also raised questions about whether military force can provide a long-term solution.

He may be able to survive another political crisis, but this is not a victory.

What will convince Israeli voters that keeping him in power isn’t the same as keeping their country safe?