El Niño’s Asian warning: Pacific Ocean connection reaching India’s food markets
El Niño warming in the Pacific disrupts Asian weather, causing severe rainfall deficits that threaten India's monsoon, agricultural output, and food markets.
El Niño, a climate phenomenon centred on unusual warming of the waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is thousands of kilometres from India, but already impacting on weather patterns in various parts of Asia.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reported last month a more than 90% possibility of an extremely strong El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere’s autumn and winter of 2026-27. It gave a 75% chance of a historic event occurring during October-December, one which would surpass the strength of any El Niño events recorded since 1950 in its specific measurement criteria.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has stated there is an exceptionally high likelihood nearly 100% that El Niño will persist in February of 2027. It is expected to intensify and peak at the end of 2026.
Why is Asia particularly exposed?
El Niño affects atmospheric circulation, with implications for rainfall and temperature patterns beyond just the Pacific. Parts of Southeast Asia can face greater drought risk, while other regions face different rainfall extremes. Reuters reports Indonesia is experiencing a delayed rainy season across about 61% of its land area, and this is expected to impact rice, sugarcane, cocoa and palm oil. But El Niño does not dictate that all affected countries face a hotter or drier scenario. Local weather systems and other climate drivers can change the outcome.That distinction is important when it comes to India.
India’s monsoon and food-security problem
India’s 2026 southwest monsoon has seen significant rainfall deficits in several regions. In August, Reuters reported rainfall would finish around 15% below the long-term average, making it the country’s weakest monsoon since 2009. The report attributed the weakening monsoon primarily to the strengthening of the El Niño pattern, while acknowledging the role of regional weather conditions. The agricultural consequences are becoming increasingly evident.
India’s rice production is now expected to fall by around 10 million tonnes in 2026, according to a Reuters report of September 17. Output is projected at about 144 million tonnes, a 6.5% reduction from last year’s record 154 million tonnes. The decline is due to significant rainfall deficits in important rice-growing regions as well as a roughly 4% fall in the area sown with summer rice. Reuters reported rainfall deficits in some key rice-growing areas reached as much as 42%.
But this is not the type of El Niño-only event. Distribution of rainfall, sowing decisions, water availability and reservoirs are also influencing agricultural production.
The bigger Asian link
This is where the story goes beyond the monsoon. Across Southeast Asia, El Niño-related changes can result in increased drought risk, with implications for agriculture and water resources. Indonesia, for example, is expecting a delayed rainy season in much of the country, and farmers are seeing a shorter period of cultivation. Reuters reported on September 22 that around 61% of Indonesia’s land area is expected to experience a delayed rainy season.
For India, reduced rainfall can impact on soil moisture, irrigation and reservoirs, with implications for beyond a single crop season. Reduced agricultural output can also lead to pressures on food prices, although actual prices depend on production, stocks, trade policy and demand.
There is another complication: the Indian Ocean.
The WMO expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to develop during September-November of 2026, with a seasonal mean of around +0.9°C. Other climate drivers, such as the IOD, can reinforce, weaken or alter the typical effects of El Niño in different regions.
That means India’s weather story cannot be confined to the simple equation of El Niño equals less rainfall.
What happens next?
NOAA expects El Niño to continue to intensify through the end of 2026 while WMO expects it to persist into early 2027. WMO also forecasts above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas for September-November, and major regional differences in rainfall.
For India and the rest of Asia, then, the real question is not just how strong El Niño is to get. It is how the powerful Pacific Ocean phenomenon interacts with regional climate systems, monsoons, agriculture, water resources and food markets.
El Niño may begin in the Pacific. But its consequences can travel much further.
