Israel Election: Can Netanyahu return to power with Gaza’s blood on his hands?

The war in Gaza has become one of the defining political challenges of Benjamin Netanyahu’s long tenure as Israel’s prime minister. Since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, Israel’s military campaign has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and devastated large parts of Gaza. The war has also drawn mounting international criticism, while questions about Israel’s security failures and the corruption cases against Netanyahu continue to haunt his government.

With Israel set to vote on October 27, Netanyahu faces a difficult electoral battle. The outcome will determine not only whether his Likud Party can return to power but also whether he can overcome the political fallout from the October 7 attacks, the conduct of the war and the legal troubles that have followed him for years.

Can Netanyahu keep the right-wing vote together and negotiate his way back to office? Or will public anger over the security failures, the devastation in Gaza and the allegations against him finally bring his long run in power to an end?

The shadow of October 7

The Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, killed around 1,200 people and saw more than 250 others taken hostage to Gaza. Israel responded with a military offensive aimed, according to the government, at dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities, bringing the hostages home and restoring the country’s security.

Nearly three years later, the consequences of the war remain central to Israel’s domestic politics. Gaza’s homes, hospitals, schools and essential infrastructure have suffered extensive destruction. Hundreds of thousands of people have faced repeated displacement, while shortages of food, clean water, medicines and shelter have deepened the humanitarian crisis.

A report on Gaza published by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) on October 14, 2026, cited figures from the Gaza Health Ministry and Israeli authorities. By October, the Gaza Health Ministry had reported more than 74,000 deaths and over 175,000 injuries.

For Netanyahu, the political consequences of the war are complicated. The October 7 attack exposed a grave failure of Israel’s security apparatus, prompting anger and demands for accountability. The government has also faced criticism over its handling of the war and its failure to secure the return of all the hostages.

Yet security remains a powerful consideration for Israeli voters. While some hold Netanyahu responsible for the failures that preceded the attack, others continue to prioritise a hardline approach towards Hamas. How voters weigh these competing concerns could prove decisive.

The ICC warrants and corruption trial

Netanyahu’s difficulties extend beyond the battlefield. On November 21, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for him and Israel’s then defence minister, Yoav Gallant, over alleged crimes committed in Gaza between October 8, 2023, and May 20, 2024.

The court found reasonable grounds to believe that they bore responsibility for alleged crimes against humanity, including murder, persecution and other inhumane acts, as well as the war crime of using starvation as a method of warfare. It also found reasonable grounds to believe that they were responsible for the war crime of intentionally directing attacks against civilians.

Israel rejected the warrants. Netanyahu maintained that the ICC was undermining the country’s right to defend itself. But the right to self-defence does not remove a state’s obligation to protect civilians or comply with international humanitarian law.

The legal proceedings have added to the political pressure on the prime minister, although their precise influence on voting intentions remains difficult to gauge.

Netanyahu is also standing trial in three corruption cases for which indictments were filed in 2019. Known as Cases 1000, 2000 and 4000, they involve allegations of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. He denies all the charges.

Case 1000 concerns allegations that Netanyahu and members of his family received expensive gifts from businessmen Arnon Milchan and James Packer. Investigators have examined whether the gifts were linked to political favours or decisions that benefited their business interests.

Case 2000 centres on alleged discussions between Netanyahu and Arnon Mozes, the publisher of a newspaper. Prosecutors have examined claims that the two discussed favourable media coverage for Netanyahu and possible measures that could weaken a rival newspaper.

Case 4000 involves allegations that Netanyahu, while serving as communications minister, granted regulatory benefits to telecommunications company Bezeq. Prosecutors allege that the news website Walla, associated with Bezeq, subsequently provided favourable coverage of Netanyahu and his family. The case includes a bribery charge.

The trial has become another source of uncertainty for a prime minister whose political survival depends heavily on maintaining the confidence of his supporters and the loyalty of his coalition partners.

The number game

Israel’s electoral system makes the path to power as much about coalition-building as it is about winning votes. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers to secure a majority.

According to the average of opinion polls published up to October 22, Netanyahu’s bloc is struggling to reach that threshold. The Israel Votes 2026 polling aggregation puts his bloc at around 53 seats. Opposition Zionist parties are projected to win approximately 49, while Arab parties could secure around 14.

If these projections hold, neither side would have an easy route to forming a government. The support of smaller parties could determine who gets to lead the next administration.

For Likud, one of the biggest challenges is preventing right-wing votes from being split among several smaller parties. Under Israel’s electoral system, a party must secure at least 3.25 per cent of the vote to enter parliament. Votes cast for parties that fall short of this threshold do not translate into seats, potentially weakening the broader political bloc to which those voters belong.

Likud has therefore shifted its focus towards winning over the supporters of smaller right-wing parties rather than persuading their leaders to withdraw from the race.

The strategy reflects a practical electoral calculation: Netanyahu does not necessarily need every smaller party to abandon its campaign if he can persuade enough of its potential voters to choose Likud instead.

But that is easier said than done.

According to The Jerusalem Post, the People of Israel party, led by retired military officer Ofer Winter, has refused to withdraw from the election. Its participation could make it harder for Likud to consolidate the right-wing vote.

Likud has responded by changing tack. Instead of trying to persuade such leaders to step aside, it is seeking to draw their supporters into its own camp.

Can Netanyahu afford to lose his allies?

Even if Netanyahu succeeds in consolidating right-wing support, he may still fall short of a majority. That would force him to confront a difficult question: should he stick with his existing coalition partners or explore alliances with political forces outside his traditional camp?

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and his far-right party, Otzma Yehudit, have been important allies in Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Their support could prove crucial if the election produces another closely divided Knesset.

However, keeping Ben-Gvir on board could complicate negotiations with parties that are unwilling to join a government dependent on the far right. Moving away from him, meanwhile, could alienate voters who favour a harder line on security and Palestinian statehood.

A broader unity government could emerge as one possible alternative if Netanyahu’s bloc fails to secure enough seats. But such an arrangement would require compromises that neither Netanyahu nor his potential partners may be willing to make.

For years, Netanyahu has relied on alliances with right-wing and religious parties to remain in office. The same coalition-building strategy that has sustained his political career could now limit his options.

His immediate challenge is to retain his core supporters without closing the door to other political arrangements. Whether he can achieve both will depend not only on the final seat count but also on the willingness of rival parties to negotiate.

Netanyahu is also concentrating on voters who identify with the right but might otherwise support smaller parties, including Winter’s People of Israel party and the Reservists–Economic Party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha. Winning over these voters could be more useful to Likud than attempting to attract people who are firmly opposed to Netanyahu.

The distinction matters. His campaign is not simply about expanding his support base; it is about ensuring that votes within his own political camp translate into the largest possible number of seats.

An opposition with its own contradictions

Netanyahu’s difficulties do not automatically translate into an opposition victory. His opponents remain divided over leadership, security policy and the composition of a future coalition.

There are also significant areas of agreement between Netanyahu and several of his principal rivals, particularly on security. Many support ending Hamas’s rule in Gaza and maintaining Israel’s security through a hardline approach. Their positions on Palestinian statehood also remain restrictive.

This complicates the prospect of a clear political break with the current government. Even if Netanyahu loses his majority, the next administration may not adopt a fundamentally different approach to Gaza or the Palestinian question.

For voters, therefore, the election may involve a choice not only between Netanyahu and his opponents but also between competing assessments of who can best guarantee Israel’s security and political stability.

A difficult road back

The October 27 election could prove a turning point in Netanyahu’s political career. The security failures exposed by the October 7 attack, the devastating consequences of the war in Gaza, the ICC warrants and his ongoing corruption trial have all added to the challenges facing him.

Yet his political future will depend on more than public discontent. Israel’s electoral arithmetic gives smaller parties considerable influence, and the ability to negotiate a workable coalition could ultimately matter as much as the popular vote.

Can Netanyahu prevent the right-wing vote from splintering? Will his opponents overcome their differences and agree on a government? And how much weight will voters give to the security failures, the war and the allegations against the prime minister?

The answers remain uncertain. The opinion polls suggest that Netanyahu cannot take another term for granted. If his bloc falls short of a majority, the struggle to form a government could become a contest of political bargaining in which old alliances are tested and new ones become possible.

For a politician who has spent years mastering the art of coalition politics, the challenge may be to prove that the same skills can keep him in power when the alliances he depends on threaten to become his greatest liability.