BJP soars in Nandigram and Rejinagar bypolls as opposition strategy comes under scrutiny

The BJP has taken a commanding lead in the by-elections to two important West Bengal Assembly constituencies, Nandigram and minority-dominated Rejinagar. According to Election Commission figures on Friday, October 9, the BJP candidates were ahead by substantial margins in both seats. However, the Commission had not formally declared the results at the time of writing, despite the counting being completed.

In Nandigram, BJP candidate Hasirani Rath was ahead by 1,22,753 votes. In Rejinagar, Murshidabad, party candidate Shankharav Sarkar was leading by 75,816 votes. The results have raised questions about the changing political equations in the state, particularly the BJP's prospects in a constituency with a large Muslim population.

Nandigram: A persona; tragedy as a massive lead

Nandigram became vacant after Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari, who won from both Nandigram and Bhabanipur in the 2026 Assembly elections, chose to retain Bhabanipur.

The BJP fielded Hasirani Rath, mother of Chandranath Rath, Adhikari's close aide who was shot dead on May 6, two days after the BJP's victory in the Assembly elections. Her candidature brought an emotional dimension to the bypoll, with the circumstances surrounding her son's death becoming an important part of the political backdrop.

At the end of counting, Hasirani Rath had secured 1,64,427 votes. Her nearest rival, Congress candidate Milan Pradhan, received 41,674 votes.

Other candidates remained far behind. CPI candidate Shanti Gopal Giri secured 5,779 votes, while Ehteshamul Haque of the Democratic Trinamool Congress, a breakaway group of the TMC, received just 853 votes.

The result is particularly significant because the TMC had initially fielded Sanchita Pradhan De. She later withdrew from the contest following a meeting with Suvendu Adhikari. The TMC subsequently backed Congress candidate Milan Pradhan in an attempt to consolidate anti-BJP votes.

However, the strategy appears to have made little difference to the BJP's massive lead.

Rejinagar: BJP’s performance raises questions

The BJP's performance in Rejinagar has drawn particular attention because nearly 70% of the constituency's voters belong to the Muslim community. The seat has traditionally witnessed competition among the Congress, the TMC and various regional political forces.

BJP candidate Shankharav Sarkar secured 1,29,914 votes. His principal challenger, Ghulam Nabi Azad of the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), received 54,098 votes. Azad is the son of party founder and former TMC leader Humayun Kabir.

Congress candidate Abdullahil Kafi secured 6,168 votes, while TMC candidate Rabiul Alam Chowdhury received 3,847 votes.

The BJP's substantial lead has prompted questions about the factors behind its performance in a constituency where minority voters have traditionally played a decisive role.

Rejinagar fell vacant after Humayun Kabir, who won from both Rejinagar and Nowda in the 2026 Assembly elections, decided to retain Nowda. Kabir had won Rejinagar by more than 58,000 votes in the Assembly election.

His son's performance in the bypoll is therefore a setback for the AJUP and raises questions about the party's future political prospects.

With 15 candidates in the fray, the Rejinagar contest was also marked by competition among several political forces. Whether the division of votes among opposition parties helped the BJP remains an important question.

Did Muslim voters back the BJP?

Following the emerging results, Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari claimed that a section of Muslim voters in both constituencies had supported the BJP.

He argued that Muslim voters in Bengal were beginning to recognise that they had been misled by political parties in the past.

However, the overall vote figures from these two constituencies cannot establish how any particular religious community voted. Assessing such claims would require reliable booth-level data and other supporting evidence.

The BJP's performance in Rejinagar is nevertheless likely to intensify the debate over minority voting patterns and the extent to which traditional political loyalties are changing in West Bengal.

Nandigram’s long political history

Nandigram has occupied a central place in Bengal politics for nearly two decades. The anti-land acquisition movement of 2007 played a major role in building the TMC's political momentum against the Left Front government.

The movement also became part of the wider political process that led to the end of the Left Front's 34-year rule in 2011.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, Suvendu Adhikari defeated then Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in Nandigram, strengthening his position within the BJP. He retained the constituency in the 2026 Assembly elections before vacating it to keep Bhabanipur.

The latest bypoll has now given the BJP another significant victory in a constituency with considerable political and symbolic importance.

Hasirani Rath's massive lead could further strengthen the party's position in Nandigram, although the extent of its long-term impact will depend on developments beyond this single constituency.

Opposition under fails to close the gap

The results have also raised questions about the effectiveness of opposition strategies in both constituencies.

In Nandigram, the TMC's decision to support the Congress candidate was intended to bring anti-BJP voters together. Yet the substantial gap between the BJP and Congress candidates suggests that the move was not enough to mount a serious challenge.

In Rejinagar, the presence of several candidates created a multi-cornered contest. The division of opposition votes may have benefited the BJP, although the final result alone cannot establish how decisive that factor was.

The two constituencies also differ significantly in their political and social composition. Any comparison must therefore account for local issues, candidate popularity, voter sentiment and the organisational strength of the competing parties.

What the results mean for Bengal politics

The BJP's performance in Nandigram and Rejinagar has strengthened its position in two politically important constituencies. It has also placed the opposition's electoral strategies under scrutiny.

Nandigram's result reinforces the BJP's hold over a seat that has played a major role in the state's political history. Rejinagar, meanwhile, presents a different challenge to established assumptions about electoral competition in minority-dominated constituencies.

Several factors could have contributed to the outcome, including changes in voter sentiment, the appeal of individual candidates, local political circumstances and divisions among opposition parties.

However, it would be premature to draw conclusions about the political mood across West Bengal from the results of just two by-elections.

The larger question is whether the BJP can sustain this momentum in other constituencies and whether opposition parties can develop a more effective strategy to challenge it in future electoral contests.