Super El Niño: Is the world ready for a ‘Godzilla’ climate crisis?

The Pacific Ocean is warming and scientists are watching closely. The developing El Niño event could have consequences far beyond the ocean, affecting rainfall, agriculture, food prices and marine life. If current forecasts hold, its effects could be felt across the world well into 2027.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the developing El Niño could influence global weather patterns over the coming months. Some forecasts suggest that it could become one of the strongest such events on record. The risks include extreme heat, drought in some regions and flooding in others. The term ‘Super El Niño’ is commonly used for particularly strong events, although the precise thresholds used to classify their intensity can vary.

Breaking records at an unprecedented pace

The speed at which ocean temperatures have risen is a major concern. According to the figures cited in recent reports, temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific were 1.6°C above normal in June and had climbed to 2.5°C by August. Forecasts for October to December suggest that the anomaly could rise further, potentially exceeding previous records.

The reported figures point to an unusually intense warming event. However, forecasts are not the same as confirmed measurements and the latest observations will be important in determining just how strong this El Niño becomes.

The event has been described as a ‘Godzilla El Niño’, a term used to convey its potentially exceptional intensity. The concern is not simply that the Pacific is getting warmer. El Niño changes the way heat is distributed between the ocean and the atmosphere, influencing temperatures and weather patterns across the planet.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has explained the process:

“El Niño does not add new heat to our planet; it releases the heat stored in the ocean, which is why strong El Niño years are often recorded among the warmest years.”

India faces an uncertain monsoon outlook

For India, the biggest concern is the possibility of a weaker monsoon and the pressure that could place on agriculture. El Niño is often associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in India, although the relationship is not straightforward and other climate factors also influence the season.

Figures cited in reports on the 2026 monsoon suggest that rainfall was 13% below normal. The same reports indicate that 38% of India's districts experienced deficient rainfall while 5% recorded a larger shortfall. If these figures are confirmed, the implications for farmers and rural communities could be considerable.

Agriculture depends heavily on the timing and distribution of rainfall. A prolonged dry spell can affect sowing, reduce soil moisture and leave farmers struggling to secure enough water for their crops. The consequences do not end in the fields. Poor harvests can push up food prices, reduce rural incomes and leave households with fewer resources to meet their everyday needs.

Some estimates cited in recent coverage suggest that India's crop production could fall by around 4%. Such projections need to be treated with caution, as the eventual impact will depend on rainfall, irrigation, crop choices and government support.

The effects may extend beyond the monsoon. A warmer winter could affect water availability, agricultural cycles and the number of cold days. Higher temperatures can also worsen air pollution under certain weather conditions, adding to the problems already faced by many Indian cities.

India is not the only country at risk. Changes in rainfall patterns could affect other parts of South Asia, although the consequences will differ from one region to another. Bangladesh and Pakistan, for instance, face their own risks from extreme rainfall and flooding. In the Himalayan region, changes in temperature, snowfall and water availability could have wider consequences for communities that depend on seasonal snow and glacial melt.

The impact will not be the same everywhere

One of the defining features of El Niño is that it can bring very different weather conditions to different parts of the world.

Parts of the eastern and central Pacific may experience heavier rainfall and flooding while Indonesia and some other regions could face drier conditions and an increased risk of wildfires. Parts of Africa and South America may also experience drought, depending on regional weather patterns.

The consequences can be particularly severe where communities are already struggling with food insecurity. Reports have warned that millions of people in Africa could face worsening food shortages if drought damages crops and reduces access to water. The economic costs could also be substantial, with agricultural losses, damage to infrastructure and disruptions to electricity generation placing additional pressure on national economies.

In parts of Central and South America, drought can affect both farming and hydropower production. When water levels fall, electricity generation may suffer, forcing countries to find alternative sources of power. In other regions, heavy rainfall and flooding can damage homes, roads and farmland.

These disruptions can also affect international markets. A fall in agricultural output may push up the prices of certain food commodities while energy shortages can increase the cost of electricity and fuel. The extent of these effects will depend on how severe the weather becomes and how well countries prepare for it.

Marine ecosystems under threat

The effects of unusually warm ocean water are not confined to the atmosphere. Marine ecosystems are also vulnerable, particularly when high temperatures persist for extended periods.

Coral reefs are among the most sensitive. When water temperatures remain too high, corals can expel the algae that provide much of their food. This process, known as coral bleaching, leaves them weakened and more likely to die if stressful conditions continue. Recovery can take years and some reefs may struggle to recover at all if repeated marine heatwaves occur before they have had time to regenerate.

Seagrass beds and fish populations can also be affected by changes in water temperature and ocean circulation. These changes matter not only for marine biodiversity but also for the people who depend on fisheries for food and income.

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), cited in discussions about the developing El Niño, has raised concerns about the pressure extreme climate events can place on marine ecosystems.

In India, 188 ecologists have reportedly issued a joint warning about the potential consequences for coral reefs, the forests of the Western Ghats and urban vegetation.

Marine biologist Rohan Arthur has highlighted the time needed for damaged reefs to recover:

“Coral reefs take at least a decade to recover after large-scale mortality. The last major El Niño occurred in 2024, and now, barely two years later, another devastating heatwave is approaching. This is truly alarming.”

The concern is that ecosystems already under pressure from rising temperatures and other human activities may have little time to recover before another extreme event arrives.

Who will bear the economic cost?

The economic consequences of a severe El Niño would not be distributed equally. Poorer households are often the least equipped to cope with crop failures, rising food prices, water shortages and extreme heat.

In India, where millions depend directly or indirectly on agriculture, a poor harvest can have consequences long after the monsoon ends. Farmers may have to borrow money to cover their losses, postpone essential spending or look for work elsewhere. For families living on limited incomes, even a modest rise in food prices can make everyday life more difficult.

Governments, too, may face additional costs. Drought relief, emergency water supplies, crop support and repairs to infrastructure can place pressure on public finances. Countries that rely heavily on hydropower or climate-sensitive agricultural exports may face further economic difficulties.

How long these effects last will depend on the strength of the event and the conditions that follow it. Forecasts suggest that the influence of the developing El Niño could continue into 2027, but its precise duration and regional consequences remain uncertain.

Preparing before the damage is done

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but its effects unfold in a world already experiencing rising temperatures. Climate change does not cause every El Niño event, nor does every event produce the same consequences. However, higher background temperatures can make some heat extremes more dangerous and place additional stress on ecosystems and communities.

Preparation cannot begin only after crops fail or reservoirs run low. Governments need reliable seasonal forecasts, better water management and systems that allow farmers to make informed decisions before the planting season. Drought-resistant crops, improved irrigation and investment in rainwater harvesting can help reduce agricultural losses.

Coastal communities also need stronger protection for marine ecosystems. Monitoring coral reefs, reducing local pollution and protecting habitats can improve their chances of surviving periods of extreme heat, even though these measures cannot eliminate the threat posed by prolonged marine heatwaves.

For India and its neighbours, the challenge is to turn climate forecasts into practical action. That means making sure warnings reach farmers and vulnerable communities in time, that water resources are managed carefully and that emergency plans are in place before a crisis develops.

The developing El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, but its full impact is not yet known. What is clear is that the cost of being unprepared could be high.

The question is no longer simply how hot the Pacific will get, but how well the rest of the world can withstand the consequences.

References

1. World Meteorological Organization (WMO). October 6, 2026. Sea-Surface Temperatures Reflect Strengthening El Niño.

2. World Meteorological Organization (WMO). October 21, 2026. Global Seasonal Climate Update for November–December–January 2026.

3. Down To Earth. October 9, 2026. Super El Niño Set to Peak in December, with Impacts Expected Well into 2027.

4. The Indian Express. October 24, 2026. ‘Godzilla’ El Niño: How Extreme Warming Could Hit India and the World.

5. The Statesman. September 26, 2026. As ‘Historic, Record-Breaking’ Super El Niño Intensifies, Why India Should Be on Watch.

6. The Wire. September 19, 2026. Take Urgent Measures to Prepare for ‘Super’ El Niño, Warn Nearly 200 Indian Ecologists.

7. Bruno, J. F., et al. 2026. Marine Ecosystems in Peril: Time to Prepare for Super El Niño. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

8. Trees Insights. October 15, 2026. India Faces Severe Agricultural Losses Amid Unprecedented 2026 Super El Niño.

9. PreventionWeb. September 23, 2026. El Niño Outlook for Asia-Pacific 2026–2027: Hazards, Vulnerability and RCRC Response.