Midterm Elections: Trump's opponents poised to win congressional majority

The future political trajectory of US President Donald Trump's second term depends heavily on the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections. The United States held its congressional midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. The opposition Democrats have begun to pull ahead of Trump's Republican Party in the electoral contest. Early trends in the vote count suggest that the Democrats are on course to regain control of the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress. They have also established a strong position in the contest for the Senate. The results could therefore deliver a major political setback to the Trump administration.

In the United States, presidential elections are held every four years. However, halfway through a president's term, in the second year of the four-year tenure, elections are held for all members of the House of Representatives, a portion of the Senate and the governors of several states. These elections are known as midterm elections. In that sense, the 2026 midterms represent a crucial political test halfway through Trump's second presidential term. Voters do not merely elect their local representatives in these elections. They also often use their votes to express support for or dissatisfaction with the president's performance.

The US Congress has two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. The House has 435 members and a party needs 218 seats to secure a majority. The Senate, on the other hand, has 100 members and requires 51 seats for a majority. Before the elections, Republicans held a majority in both chambers. They had 53 seats in the Senate compared to 47 held by the Democrats. In the House, Republicans held 219 seats while the Democrats had 214. The Republican majority in both chambers was therefore extremely narrow. A shift of just a few seats could change the balance of power in Congress.

According to information available until 9.30 am Indian Standard Time on November 4, several American news outlets projected that the Democrats could win at least 244 seats in the House of Representatives. They were also ahead in the Senate race. However, counting was still underway and the final results for all seats had not yet been declared. Subsequent electoral trends have also pointed to a strong performance by the Democrats. The possibility of Republicans losing control of Congress has therefore grown increasingly significant.

But what explains this apparent shift in public opinion against the Republicans? One of the key reasons is the economic situation in the United States. Even before the elections, rising prices and the growing cost of living had fuelled public discontent. Higher expenses on everything from essential commodities and fuel to housing and everyday services have placed considerable pressure on middle-class and low-income households. During his election campaign, Trump had promised to bring inflation under control and strengthen the American economy. However, questions are now being raised about how far those promises have been fulfilled during his second term.

Trump's tariff policy has added to the discontent. He had argued that imposing additional tariffs on foreign goods would strengthen American industries and domestic manufacturing. However, the policy has created uncertainty in international trade. Fears of rising prices for imported goods and the resulting impact on consumers have further fuelled dissatisfaction with the administration's economic policies.

The international situation has also influenced the elections. The war involving the United States and Israel against Iran has driven up global oil prices. This has had a direct impact on fuel and transportation costs, placing additional pressure on household budgets. Opposition parties have increasingly sought to hold the Trump administration responsible for the economic difficulties and the consequences of international conflicts. Against this backdrop, the elections have become an opportunity for the Democrats to consolidate public opposition to Trump's policies.

Opinion polls conducted ahead of the elections had also indicated a Democratic lead. According to an NPR-PBS-Marist poll released in the last week of October, 52 per cent of likely voters supported Democratic candidates in the congressional elections compared to 44 per cent who favoured Republicans. The gap stood at eight percentage points. The survey also found that 44 per cent of likely voters viewed the elections primarily as an opportunity to oppose Trump. Only 21 per cent said their vote was primarily intended to support the president. These figures suggest that anti-Trump sentiment has played a significant role in building support for the Democrats.

Trump himself took an active part in the election campaign. He addressed several rallies in support of Republican candidates. At one point, he even urged voters to approach the ballot box as though his name, rather than those of the individual candidates, appeared on the ballot. In effect, he had turned the midterm elections into a direct test of his own popularity.

The Democrats have also made a strong showing in the gubernatorial elections. Democratic leader Keisha Lance Bottoms has won in Georgia, becoming the first Black woman to be elected governor of an American state. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have made encouraging gains in Texas, a state long regarded as a Republican stronghold. Their strong performance in the gubernatorial race, a Senate seat and several House of Representatives contests in the state is particularly significant. Gains against the Republicans in a state like Texas could point to a broader shift in American politics.

If the Democrats eventually secure control of both chambers of Congress, the Trump administration will face fresh political obstacles. Although the US president exercises considerable executive authority, many important legislative and budgetary decisions cannot be implemented without congressional approval. A Democratic majority could subject Trump's executive decisions, economic policies and foreign policy to much closer scrutiny. Congressional investigations into various administration decisions and greater oversight of government activities could also follow.

However, a Democratic victory does not necessarily mean that America's economic and social problems will be resolved quickly. If the party regains power by capitalising on public opposition to Trump, it will also have to present a clear alternative policy agenda. A section of the electorate remains sceptical not only of the Republicans but also of the Democrats and their political positions.

The elections have therefore emerged as a significant turning point in American politics. Barely two years after winning the presidential election, Trump is facing questions about his popularity and his party's electoral prospects. The outcome represents more than a shift in the balance of seats in Congress. It also reflects how American voters view the policies and political leadership of Trump's second administration. The extent to which the Trump administration will be able to govern without significant constraints over the next two years will largely be determined by the outcome of these elections.