Five key reasons: Why Trump suffered major setback in the US midterm elections

Donald Trump suffered a major setback in the US midterm elections, with his Republican Party losing control of both chambers of Congress. The result is being seen as a reflection of American voters’ growing anger over Trump’s second term, his economic policies, the war with Iran and his immigration policies.

The party of the sitting president typically loses some seats in midterm elections. However, the scale of the Republicans’ defeat this time was greater than expected. What led to such a result? Five key reasons stand out.

1. Rising cost of living

Rising prices proved to be the biggest blow to the Republicans. Ordinary Americans have been struggling with the increasing cost of essential goods, food, fuel and electricity over the past few months. Many voters have directly blamed the Trump administration’s policies for the situation.

In the year up to September, inflation in the US reached 3.7 per cent. Diesel prices also came close to record levels in early October. A voter survey found that nearly 79 per cent of Americans had faced some degree of financial difficulty due to rising prices over the past year. More than 60 per cent of them blamed Trump's policies for the situation.

A voter from North Carolina told the BBC that the prices of everything, from fuel to food, had gone up. As a result, the voter chose to support the Democrats instead of the Republicans this time. In other words, the everyday cost of living mattered more to voters than political slogans.

2. The war with Iran and its economic impact

One of Trump's key election promises was to keep America out of any new wars. However, the conflict with Iran has put that promise under serious scrutiny. Following the start of military operations by the US and Israel in February, the situation has become increasingly complicated. Disruptions to energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up global oil prices, with the impact being felt by ordinary Americans.

The dissatisfaction is not limited to voters outside Trump's support base. Even some of his own supporters, who believe in his 'America First' policy, have expressed disapproval of the war. According to a survey, 63 per cent of respondents said military action against Iran was a mistake by the US. Nearly 74 per cent of voters said the war had played an important role in influencing their voting decisions.

As a result, the Republicans had to pay a political and economic price for the conflict.

3. Democrats focused their campaigns on everyday concerns

The Democrats placed ordinary people's everyday problems at the centre of their election campaigns. They focused on issues such as the cost of living, healthcare expenses and corruption. Candidates such as James Talarico in Texas, Adam Hamilton in Kansas and Annie Andrews in South Carolina managed to connect their campaigns with the concerns of local communities.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed spoke about reducing the influence of money in politics and putting more money back into people's pockets. In Georgia, tackling rising prices and corruption was among the key themes of Jon Ossoff's campaign.

On the other hand, several Republican candidates focused heavily on campaigning around Trump. As a result, voters' actual concerns were pushed into the background in many constituencies.

4. A decline in Trump's popularity

Trump's declining personal popularity was another major factor behind the Republicans' poor performance. Key issues such as rising prices and the war with Iran were directly linked to decisions taken by his administration. Consequently, the President himself became the focus of voters' anger.

During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly urged supporters to imagine that he was on the ballot and vote accordingly. However, this strategy failed to deliver the desired results. Instead, the midterm elections became, to a considerable extent, a referendum on his presidency.

Even during his final campaign appearances, Trump spent considerable time discussing the renovation of the Reflecting Pool at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, rather than addressing ordinary Americans' economic concerns. This further highlighted the gap between his messaging and voters' priorities.

5. Losing support among Hispanic and Black voters

In the 2024 presidential election, Trump received support from sections of both Hispanic and Black voters. This support played an important role in his victory. However, the trend appears to have changed considerably in the latest elections. Democrats won all three seats in the Hispanic-majority districts along the Texas-Mexico border.

According to an analysis by The New York Times, Republican Senate candidates saw their support decline by more than 22 percentage points in Hispanic-majority areas compared with 2024. Anger over the aggressive enforcement operations carried out by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was one of the key reasons behind this shift.

A Pew Research Centre survey found that 56 per cent of Americans viewed ICE unfavourably. Similarly, Democratic support also increased in predominantly Black areas.

Rising prices, the war, a growing disconnect with voters, ineffective election campaigns and the loss of support among key voter groups — all five factors worked against the Republicans.

In 2024, Trump returned to the White House on the strength of his popularity. Just two years later, that popularity appears to have suffered a significant blow. Ahead of the 2028 presidential election, the result therefore serves as an important political warning for both Trump and the Republican Party.